What to do about Yu?
Now that Yu Darvish is officially a Ranger (nice job by our intrepid Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan on that crazy deadline. Be sure to read his blog, Postcards from Elysian Fields and follow him on Twitter at @Sullivan_Ranger), the question is: How to deal with the Japanese right-hander on the prospect front.
It’s not an easy question to answer. In the past, our requirement was rookie status. If a player was eligible for Rookie of the Year voting, he belonged on a prospect ranking. Last year, for instance, we added Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the Twins’ top 10 after he signed, coming in at No. 7.
Darvish, of course, would rank much higher, both on his new organization’s list and on the overall Top 100 (Coming on Jan. 25 if you hadn’t heard). But here’s the thing. I’ve never been all that comfortable with including a player like Darvish on a prospect list. To me, he’s not a prospect. He’s a big leaguer and already an established star in another high-level league. Deciding on what the line is for rankings is always arbitrary, but I adhered to the (admittedly self-imposed) rookie status rule in the past.
I suppose the argument could be made that since the league Darvish is coming from isn’t at the same level as MLB (most put it at a Triple-A-ish level), he should count the same as, say, Matt Moore, also coming up from Triple-A. I just don’t see it that way and the Rangers didn’t just shell out all that cash to get anything but a finished product who will produce right away.
So, in 2012, we’ve decided to take our cue from the newly bargained CBA, as it pertains to international signings. They put particular rules in place about which international players will fall under the international player pool each team will be allotted. More advanced players like Darvish can be signed in the future without it counting against a team’s pool. Neither, by the way, would Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.
If it’s good enough for them, it’s good enough for us. So here’s the new rule as it pertains to such international acquisitions:
Not all international players will qualify for these rankings. Prospect Watch will follow the guidelines laid out by the new CBA: Players in leagues deemed to be professional (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Cuba) and are at least 23 years old and have played a certain number of years in those leagues will not be considered.
So, Mr. Darvish (and Mr. Cespedes eventually), you might qualify to be ROY, but you won’t show up on Prospect Watch.
Thoughts on the Montero deal and much, much more
Believe it or not, this is my first post of 2012. But I have a good reason, honest. First, I was traveling overseas with my family. Don’t believe me? Here’s a picture as proof (Yes, that’s the Dome of the Rock behind my Dome):
- The B3 brood in the Old City of Jerusalem (Mrs. B3 is the official family photographer)
Then it was on to the Rookie Career Development Program outside of Washington, D.C. Don’t believe me? Well, proof is in this link, our overview of the Program (with player interviews galore beneath that).
These days, I’m knee deep in prospect ranking work. Don’t believe me? (Perhaps I’m overusing the theme). Proof is the first list that was released today: The Top 10 RHP Prospects, the story as well as in Prospect Watch (with video of each player). Oh, and if you didn’t notice, there’s a brand new central location for all things prospect called Prospect Central. Check it out early and often.
In the midst of all of this, there was the news of the big Yankees-Mariners trade. It’s not official just yet, so no movement on the ol’ 2011 Postseason lists, but it’s coming. And we’re making sure all the 2012 lists are up to date (Top 100 overall coming out on Jan. 25), Top 20 per team coming in February (that’s right, folks, twice as many names!!!! So you understand why the B3 Blog had taken a back seat).
So, the trade… my first gut reaction was that the Mariners gave up too much. But then I talked to a bunch of people who’s opinions I trust in the scouting industry and I’ve come around to this perhaps being a win-win. The Yankees needed starting pitching help and they can, if they so desire, have Michael Pineda for a long time. Jose Campos is a legit prospect as well and even if he’s young and hasn’t pitched in full-season ball, I had one scout tell me he thought he’d be ready by 2014.
The key, though, is Montero (Hector Noesi will contribute, tho). The M’s have wanted him for a while, remember? So now they got their man, the middle of the order (young) bat to put with Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. But, the $64,000 question is, can he catch?
My thinking is the Yankees didn’t think so, or else they didn’t want to, in the pressure cooker of New York, find out. There was no room for Montero on that roster unless he was going to be a DH at age 22. To me, the writing was on the wall when late last year they needed a catcher, Montero was up, but they brought up Austin Romine instead. Having made the determination that Montero wasn’t going to catch for them anytime soon, they were more willing to part with his bat. This, by the way, is just a theory.
I thought that most in the scouting world agreed that Montero would never have the stuff to catch every day in the big leagues. But it turns out I was wrong. I know, shocking. But in an informal survey I did of some high-level scouts, most actually thought he’d eventually be OK behind the plate. No one was ready to etch his name on Gold Gloves, but those I talked to made comparisons to Javy Lopez (he came up several times), Jorge Posada and, of course, Mike Piazza (Yes, many think Montero’s bat could be THAT good). Here’s some of what they had to say:
“There are a bunch of ex-catchers that made their mark with their bats and figured out the catching position the more they played. Remember, this kid is 22 years old and he can really throw. That’s a good start for his continued development.”
“Yes [he'll be able to catch]! The team will need patience. He’s better than Mike Napoli was at the same stage!”
“Not now (will he be able to catch full-time), but Javier Lopez did! All catchers that stay there get better if they try!”
“If he hits enough — remember Javy Lopez?”
Told you about the Lopez comps. And scouts really like to use exclamation points in text messages. But that’s neither here nor there.
So, Mariners fans, don’t expect defensive miracles right off the bat. But stick with your soon-to-be new catcher. Sounds like most think he’ll be acceptable back there and the bat will more than make up for any deficiencies with the glove.
What they like about Yu (Darvish)
With the deadline for bids for Yu Darvish now in the past, I thought it was time to see what all the fuss is about. The headline possibilities are almost endless:
What I like about Yu (variation used above)
I only had Yu
Yu had me at hello
Anyway, you get the point.
We’ll know soon who has won the rights to negotiate with the right-hander. To get fans of teams who might be in the running ready, I spoke with a scout in Japan who has seen Darvish throw on many occasions. Here’s what he had to say:
If you ask him, he throws more than ten pitches. I’ve seen him throw four-seamers, two-seamers, cutters, splitters, forkballs, curve balls, sliders, and changeups with variation on most of the breaking stuff. What he uses depends on how he’s feeling that day. Basically, he’ll sit 93-95 mph and touch as high as 98 mph. His two seamers are 91-93 mph, his cutter is 89-91 mph. I’ve seen the curve as low as 64 and as high as 82 with pretty good arm speed. The slider can be 86-87, 82-84, 77-78 (Japanese slurve), all over the place, really. It’s his go-to pitch. Splitter 87-88, but he doesn’t throw it much. His hands are small for a guy his size, and it looks like he has trouble getting his fingers around the ball for the splitter. He’s very good with a very high ceiling. He has the right amount of cockiness to get through the new challenges that await him. I think he’s a #3 starter at worst, obviously with a chance to be an ace.
There’s a lot of information about Darvish out there, with more assuredly to come. Hopefully this adds a little something to that file.
A few parting Winter Meetings thoughts
I’m home now after another Winter Meetings in the books (for the record, this was my 11th Winter Meetings, third here in Dallas), and I figured I’d leave with a few parting thoughts, of course with a prospect slant.
- With Mr. Pujols now officially gone from St. Louis, most talk has been about moving Lance Berkman or Allen Craig to first base. I wonder if they’ll give Matt Adams a shot to play somewhere now. Probably unlikely, but that guy can hit.
- With Mr. Wilson now officially gone from Texas, is there anyone internally who’d get a crack at that rotation? Martin Perez isn’t ready, maybe a Neil Ramirez type? Of course, Texas could dive into the Yu Darvish sweepstakes (more on him after I get home). Conversely, with the Angels getting him, does that mean a guy like Garrett Richards can get more development time in the Minors?
- With the Marlins not getting Wilson or Pujols, do they have enough left in the piggy bank to go after Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes?
- Will the best players not taken in the Rule 5 Draft — Jiwan James, the intriguing story of Drew Cumberland — make people wish they had taken them with strong seasons in 2012?
- Will anyone provide the A’s with enough prospects to get Gio Gonzalez? Sounds like Oakland is selling high, so we’ll see if a team that needs a starter is willing to bite.
That’s it for now. Take a deep breath and we’ll talk more next week.
The latest Rule 5 talk
Yes, there is some. Maybe not the intrigue of where Albert and C.J. will sign, but people are talking about tomorrow’s Rule 5 Draft. Here’s some of what’s being talked about regarding the draft.
- The Houston Astros might be shopping the No. 1 overall pick. That doesn’t mean they don’t want two players, but perhaps might be able to swap the pick, collect some extra cash, and still make two selections. Jiwan James of the Phillies is getting a lot more buzz, either as a No. 1 pick or a player the Astros is very interested in. James has only been a position player for 2+ years.
- It seems more and more likely the Padres will lose Drew Cumberland. The very talented infielder hasn’t played since 2010, having retired because of an inner-ear issue. As I hear it, Padres doctors haven’t cleared him to play, but Cumberland has a doctor who has.
- The Kansas City Royals cleared a spot on the 40-man with their trade with the Pirates and they have their eye on a left-handed reliever. Don’t know which one, but Cesar Cabral of the Red Sox has been mentioned in general quite a bit.
- While most people expect the Cubs to lose Ryan Flaherty, they could also lose infielder Marwin Gonzalez, who can play second, shortstop, third and even left field. He hit .288 in 2011 and spent half the year in Triple-A.
- The Pirates might lose reliever Diego Moreno, the right-handed reliever who’s pitched very well in winter ball.
- Teams looking for lefties might take a look at the Indians’ T.J. McFarland or Josh Smoker of the Nationals. Hard-throwing southpaw Philippe Valliquette, despite not having pitched in 2011, is getting a good amount of attention, with the Blue Jays perhaps hoping he’s available when they pick.
The skinny on Nestor Molina
The Blue Jays got a dynamic late-inning reliever in Sergio Santos, but the White Sox got a pretty good pitching prospect in return. Here’s some more information on right-hander Nestor Molina.
Like the big leaguer he was traded for, Molina is also a convert to pitching. The Venezuelan originally signed as a hitter, playing the outfield and third base in the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues in 2006-2007 before turning to pitching full-time in 2008.
He made his United States debut in 2009 and spent nearly all of his first two seasons in the country as a reliever. He pitched well in that role, with a 1.67 ERA in 2009 and 3.11 in his full-season debut across two levels in 2010.
The Blue Jays moved the 22-year-old into a starting role in 2011 and he took to it well, leading the system in ERA (2.21) and finishing third in strikeouts. He walked only 16 while striking out 148. He was a Florida State League All-Star and earned a late promotion to Double-A, where he was extremely effective over five Eastern League starts. The success he had earned him a spot on Toronto’s 40-man roster in November.
Molina features an intriguing four-pitch mix with an advanced feel for pitching. He’ll throw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and complements it with a slider and a changeup. His best pitch, though, might be his splitter, a true plus offering with a ton of deception. Some have said he might be better-suited to be a top-flight bullpen/setup guy, but his stuff and command say he’ll get more time to start.
Marlins signings: Who gets what comp picks?
As if the newly bargained agreement wasn’t confusing enough, we had to have one team sign two free agents at about the same time. And with one of those free agents a “modified Type A” in the one-year rule adjustment before Type A and Type B ratings go the way of the dinosaur, it gets even more complicated.
The Marlins have made quite the splash in signing Heath Bell (the aforementioned modified Type A) and Jose Reyes (a good, old-fashioned Type A). Because Florida picks No. 9 overall, they will not be giving up their first-round pick. And because they signed Bell first, they won’t be giving up their second-round selection either.
When Bell was modified, it was decided that a team signing him would not have to sacrifice a pick at all to get him. Instead, the Padres will get a compensation pick (sandwich A, we can still call it) after the first round is over. They will also get a second-round pick right in front of the Marlins’ second-round selection.
Here’s the kicker. Even though the Marlins did not have to give up that second-round pick to the Padres, it’s not available to the Mets as compensation for the Reyes signing. Because Bell signed first, that pick in effect is a part of that signing, even though its part is that it didn’t have to be forfeited. Instead, the Mets will get a Comp A pick and the Marlins’ selection in the third round.
Had the Marlins officially signed Reyes first, the Mets would have received that second-round pick. In other words, they get penalized a round because of the Bell signing. That might be something that doesn’t bother the Marlins, given they are in the same division as the Mets. But it’s probably likely that Bell himself will love it. He’s not exactly a fan of the Mets from his time in their system and the fact that his signing cost them a round might give him a little chuckle.
Welcome to Dallas
And another Winter Meetings has begun.
As we get our bearings (the Anatole re-designing their lobby made it tougher for me, that’s for sure), there will be plenty to report. And while there’s no question MLB.com is the best place to go for all the big league news, you’ll want to come by for all the prospecty stuff as well, courtesy of yours truly.
Any trade that involves prospects, I’ll be sharing what the industry thinks about the Minor Leaguers involved. There will be Rule 5 buzz (if you want to call it that) to boot.
Keep in mind, the Winter Meetings are, technically, a Minor League event, so there will be plenty to talk about.
Much, much more as the time unfolds.
More CBA goodies
I’m not sure if I’m in the whole “the more I found out, the less I know” area with all of this stuff, but I might be close. But I do have more information on how some of this Collective Bargaining Agreement stuff will work in terms of the Draft. Stay tuned to a series of stories over on MLB.com in the coming days to explain it in more detail, with reaction from people in the industry. For now, some more nuts and bolts:
- If a Club does not sign a pick, its signing bonus pool is reduced by the amount of the pick. So, for example, if a Club does not sign its first round pick, and its first round pick had a slot of $1.5 million, the Club’s signing bonus pool would be reduced by $1.5. This is true of any unsigned pick, not just those covered by compensation. The main idea here was to not create incentive for a team to NOT sign a pick. Without this safeguard, a team could “punt” a pick in order to divert those funds to another pick later on, which could result in a Draft that would look a lot like the old ones. In the next year’s draft, the Club would receive a compensation selection for failing to sign its first, second or third round selections, and the slot assigned to the compensation selection will be added to its signing bonus pool.
- In the new system, the total aggregate pool in the 10 slotted rounds will be $185 million. With an estimate of $20 million spent after the 10th round (remember, bonuses up to $100,000 do not count toward a team’s aggregate pool), that means teams could spend a combined total of $205 million without getting penalized. That total of $205 million is higher than every Draft from 2004-2010. Spending in past years: $159 million (2006); $155 million (2007); $198 million (2009) and $200 million in 2010.
Some context to consider:
- Signing bonus inflation since 2006 has certainly impacted teams picking at the top of the Draft. In 2011, 23 players got bonuses higher than what Tim Lincecum got ($2.025 million) as the No. 10 overall pick in 2006. 11 players in 2011 got more than Evan Longoria’s bonus as the No. 3 selection that year ($3 million).
- Four Clubs that spent the most money in excess of MLB’s slotting recommendations from 2007-2010 were the Nationals (Strasburg, Harper), Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees. That does offset the notion that the small-market/small-revenue clubs have used the Draft system the most, though when you look 2009-2011, the Royals and Pirates climb into that upper group. Still, not quite the slam-dunk people have said it was in terms of the new system hurting the smaller clubs.
First story in in the series on MLB.com will be explaining in detail how this Competitive Balance Lottery will work.
The new CBA — what the top 10 picks are worth
I’m getting more and more details about how the new CBA will work in terms of the Draft and international signings and I promise to share them all with you as the picture becomes more clear. Some of that will come in the form of stories and I’ll use the B3 space for tidbits here and there. And believe me, there’s a lot. Truthfully, no one knows just yet how this will impact anything with the Draft and might not until everyone goes through it a time or two. Yes, there will be some bumps, especially with the market correction in the first year, but I think it too soon to presume certain teams will be ruined/destroyed/greatly hampered by this new system.
Anyway, one bit of info I wanted to pass along now. Those of you following this saga know that the way it will be set up will be with each team having a certain “Signing Bonus Pool” — an amount of money a team is allowed to spend in the Draft without being charged a tax or the forfeiture of draft pick(s). Teams picking at the top of the Draft will have a larger pool. In 2012, the Astros will have the largest pool at $11.5 million. That figure comes from adding up the values of every pick they will have, as of now, in rounds 1-10.
I have been able to obtain the values assigned to the top 10 picks in the Draft. It doesn’t give the complete picture — I hope to get more information soon — but you can see how MLB valued the top of the Draft:
1 — $7.2 million
2 — $6.2 million
3 — $5.2 million
4 — $4.2
5 — $3.5
6 — $3.25
7 — $3
8 — $2.9
9 — $2.8
10 — $2.7
This doesn’t mean a team picking No. 4, for example, can’t go over $4.2 million to sign that pick, but it all goes toward that aggregate pool. As a comparison, take a look at what the Nos. 1-10 picks got in 2011. Keep in mind, some of these were Major League deals, which are no longer allowed. But in any deal — even a two-sport contract spread over five years — would be included in total against that year’s pool.
1 — Gerrit Cole: $8 million
2 — Danny Hultzen: $6.35
3 — Trevor Bauer: $3.4
4 — Dylan Bundy: $4
5 — Bubba Starling: $7.5
6 — Anthony Rendon: $6
7 — Archie Bradley: $5
8 — Francisco Lindor: $2.9
9 — Javier Baez: $2.65
10 — Cory Spangenberg: $1.863
Not too far off, right, with an exception or two. And the Diamondbacks giving Bradley $5 million is more than the $3 million value for the No. 7 pick now, but they saved in the aggregate with Trevor Bauer’s deal. In the new system, those two picks are valued at $8.2 million. Bauer and Bradley got $8.4 million.
This is far from a complete picture, obviously, and I hope to paint that as time goes on and more details become known. But it’s a little bit of a look at the fact that perhaps this isn’t as doomsday-ish as some early reactions made it out to be.
Much, much more to come.
Jonathan Mayo
Recent Comments