Thursday: Statistical projection

Now that’s a headline that grabs you, doesn’t it… zzzzzz

But it can be fun as the first month of the season comes to a close. And I do it with today’s featured game in mind:

Game of the Day

Memphis Redbirds at Iowa Cubs, 8 p.m. ET
MiLB.TV | Gameday Audio: Iowa | Memphis

I always like when you get a good pitcher facing a red-hot hitter to see who wins the battle that particular day. In this tilt, you’ve got Cards’ pitching prospect Clayton Mortensen (1.47 ERA — good for fifth in the PCL — .161 BAA in three starts) trying to stop I-Cubs force Jake Fox, who leads the league in just about everything, including all three Triple Crown categories. He’s got five homers in his last five games, giving him 12 for the season, leading all of the Minors by a big margin.

This is where the projecting of stats gets fun. Fox is hitting .446 with those 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 19 games. If he keeps up this pace for the entire season with Iowa, he’ll hit about 88 homers and drive in 224 runs. I don’t have the information in front of me, but I’m pretty sure those would be records.

Obviously, this is unlikely to happen. But a guy can dream about Fox and about…

  • Darin Mastroianni in the Blue Jays system (Dunedin), who will steal 116 bases this season.
  • Mike Hessman in Toledo, who’s going to strike out 272 times in 2009.
  • Akron’s Vinny Pestano, who will rack up 63 saves.
  • Jason Knapp and his 272 strikeouts for Lakewood.
  • Kasey Kiker and the 51 or so sore hitters he’s going to plunk this season.

I could do this for hours, but you get the point. Yes, I know, I’m a geek. But at least I’m willing to admit it.

2 Comments

Hey, there is nothing wrong with statistical projections!!! :D

I greatly enjoy my Diamond Mind Baseball and projection disks.

how far has ben tootle (jacksonville state) dropped this season? he was a first round projection prior to the season on some boards.

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