Top 50 Update No. 3
Hello all, I hope everyone enjoyed their respective holidays and perhaps some time off.
No rest for the weary at B3 (actually, I’m not weary, it just seemed like the thing to say). Time for another update of the Top 50 prospects. I guess the big news is Brandon Belt being sent down to Triple-A to work on his swing. So far, so good, as you’ll see. Let’s start with a Top 50 Player and Pitcher of the week, shall we?
Hitter of the Week: Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
Yes, he’s playing in Triple-A Las Vegas, which is a nice place to hit. But I don’t care where you call home, starting a season .425/.468/.712 is just insane. And he’s just 21. This past week, the third baseman had a two-homer game. After going 0-for-4 in his first game of the week, he proceeded to go 11-for-22 (yes, that’s .500) with a double, three homers, five RBIs and two stolen bases. He also committed his sixth error (though it was his only one for the week) as he continues to learn how to play the hot corner. That might be the only reason he’s not getting the call yet.
And here’s all of the hitters to date:
| Rank | Name | Team | level | avg | ab | hr | rbi | sb | slg | obp |
| 1 | Trout, Mike | LAA | aa | 0.283 | 53 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0.566 | 0.367 |
| 3 | Harper, Bryce | WAS | a | 0.306 | 49 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0.551 | 0.414 |
| 5 | Ackley, Dustin | SEA | aaa | 0.236 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.333 | 0.345 |
| 7 | Moustakas, Mike | KC | aaa | 0.239 | 67 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0.373 | 0.311 |
| 8 | Hosmer, Eric | KC | aaa | 0.358 | 67 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0.463 | 0.443 |
| 9 | Montero, Jesus | NYY | aaa | 0.407 | 59 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.525 | 0.400 |
| 11 | Jennings, Desmond | TB | aaa | 0.266 | 64 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0.391 | 0.413 |
| 16 | Myers, Wil | KC | aa | 0.261 | 46 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0.435 | 0.300 |
| 17 | Freeman, Freddie | ATL | mlb | 0.250 | 72 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0.431 | 0.349 |
| 24 | Machado, Manuel | BAL | a | 0.276 | 58 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.414 | 0.386 |
| 26 | Belt, Brandon | SF | mlb | 0.192 | 52 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.269 | 0.300 |
| Belt, Brandon | aaa | 0.429 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.556 | ||
| 28 | Lawrie, Brett | TOR | aaa | 0.425 | 73 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 0.712 | 0.468 |
| 30 | Singleton, Jonathan | PHI | a+ | 0.306 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0.444 | 0.419 |
| 32 | Sanchez, Gary | NYY | a | 0.231 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.359 | 0.279 |
| 36 | Chisenhall, Lonnie | CLE | aaa | 0.224 | 58 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0.362 | 0.324 |
| 36 | Franklin, Nick | SEA | a+ | 0.291 | 55 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.473 | 0.409 |
| 39 | Hicks, Aaron | MIN | a+ | 0.231 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.327 | 0.317 |
| 41 | Rosario, Wilin | COL | aa | 0.310 | 42 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0.714 | 0.370 |
| 42 | Iglesias, Jose | BOS | aaa | 0.216 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.216 | 0.259 |
| 44 | Gordon, Dee | LAD | aaa | 0.281 | 64 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0.344 | 0.314 |
| 45 | Mesoraco, Devin | CIN | aaa | 0.261 | 46 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0.565 | 0.352 |
| 46 | Jackson, Brett | CHI | aa | 0.375 | 56 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 0.679 | 0.486 |
| 48 | Arencibia, J.P. | TOR | mlb | 0.245 | 53 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0.528 | 0.310 |
| 49 | Alonso, Yonder | CIN | aaa | 0.278 | 54 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.389 | 0.322 |
Pitcher of the Week: Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
Michael Pineda certainly gets a shout out for his six innings of shutout ball in the bigs, but this week, we’ll go with the young Rangers lefty who looks like perhaps he’s starting to figure some things out in Double-A. Still just 20, Perez tossed five spotless innings on April 19 in a weather-shortened perfecto. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed no runs while yielding just four hits and two walks while striking out 12. He’s got 15 K’s in 13 innings and a .191 batting average against. Still a small sample size, but the stuff has always been there. Now some think he’s starting to turn a corner, which could be bad news for the AL West.
Now for all of the pitchers…
| Rank | Name | Team | level | w | l | era | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | so |
| 2 | Hellickson, Jeremy | TB | mlb | 1 | 2 | 4.32 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | Chapman, Aroldis | CIN | mlb | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 9.2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 10 | Teheran, Julio | ATL | aaa | 1 | 0 | 1.69 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Drabek, Kyle | TOR | mlb | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 24 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 13 | Pineda, Michael | SEA | mlb | 3 | 1 | 1.78 | 25.1 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 21 |
| 14 | Montgomery, Mike | KC | aaa | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 15 | Turner, Jacob | DET | aa | 0 | 0 | 1.83 | 19.2 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| 19 | Britton, Zach | BAL | mlb | 3 | 1 | 3.16 | 25.2 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 20 | Miller, Shelby | STL | a+ | 0 | 1 | 2.55 | 17.2 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 28 |
| 21 | Minor, Mike | ATL | mlb | 0 | 1 | 10.38 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 | Minor, Mike | aaa | 1 | 0 | 1.45 | 18.2 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 22 | |
| 22 | Kelly, Casey | SD | aa | 1 | 0 | 4.64 | 21.1 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 23 | Perez, Martin | TEX | aa | 1 | 0 | 1.38 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 25 | Sale, Chris | CWS | mlb | 2 | 0 | 6.23 | 8.2 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 27 | Moore, Matthew | TB | aa | 0 | 2 | 5.89 | 18.1 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 24 |
| 29 | Parker, Jarrod | ARI | aa | 1 | 2 | 12.00 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| 31 | Lyles, Jordan | HOU | aaa | 1 | 2 | 4.71 | 21 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 33 | Matzek, Tyler | COL | a+ | 0 | 1 | 6.97 | 10.1 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 34 | Lamb, John | KC | aa | 0 | 1 | 5.56 | 11.1 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8 |
| 35 | Banuelos, Manny | NYY | aa | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 37 | Odorizzi, Jake | KC | a+ | 0 | 0 | 3.46 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| 40 | Gibson, Kyle | MIN | aaa | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 43 | Scheppers, Tanner | TEX | aaa | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 47 | Archer, Christopher | TB | aa | 0 | 1 | 6.39 | 12.2 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 50 | Friedrich, Christian | COL | aa | 1 | 1 | 5.63 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
Jonathan Mayo
I’m not one to debate these orders, but Moustakas over Hosmer? What led to that decision?
It’s close to splitting hairs, Ian. Not much separated the two of them. Not sure if you saw my explanation of my methodology, but I poll scouts and a player gets “points” depending on where they’re ranked, kind of like the AP poll for college football/basketball (30 points for first place, 29 for second, etc.) Moustakas finished a grand total of 10 points ahead of Hosmer, which is next to nothing given the large quantity of scouts I polled.
Gotcha! Thanks for breaking that down for me.
How do you put Parker and Matzek over Skaggs. Have you seen him pitch? He is on the worst team we have had here in Visalia. He is leading his team in all stat’s. NO run support and error’s behind him also a center fielder who jogged after a ball he misplayed for an inside the park home run(I was there) . This kid is pitching his heart out for us and he needs to be recognized. also moved to Mobil . by the way his physical stats are wrong. I had a chance to talk to him . I asked him how tall and how much he weighted. He replied 6’6″ -210lbs and the scout sitting next to me had him @94-96mph in the 5th. I would like to know what his velo was in the first 2 innings. He has to be leading his league in k’s. For goodness sake pull your head out of your butt and watch him pitch . you will be impressed.
Bill — First, thanks for writing. Second, the reason I do a Top 50 is to spark debate. Third, if you ever say something like “pull your head out of your butt” in a comment again, I won’t approve it. I’m not pro-censorship, but that’s not necessary, is it, even if meant in jest?
OK, now on to what you’re saying about Skaggs. He comes in at No. 52 (as you can see in my “Breaking Down the Top 50″ story — http://atmlb.com/fZD4020. You may or may not have seen or read the methodology I use to generate the list. I poll scouts — they give me their top 30s — and I give players a cumulative score based on where they are ranked, kind of like the AP poll for college sports. So if Mike Trout was No. 1 on a list, he got 30 points and so on. So, in the end, Skaggs didn’t get rated as highly by the scouts I spoke to at the time (keep in mind this was back in December after a year in which Skaggs threw just 98 1/3 innings).
If Skaggs continues to pitch well, he’ll move up on the list. I will caution you, however, not to draw conclusions after four starts in a year. Skaggs does indeed lead the California League in strikeouts. He’s also third in walks and he has a 5.31 ERA, something that has nothing to do with run support and only a little to do with poor fielding. His stuff is undeniable, but if he doesn’t improve his command, he’s not going to move up on this list — and moving him up to Double-A would be a big mistake as it doesn’t look like he’s ready.
Thank you for taking the time to answer my comment. Please forgive me , that comment was mis-directed. I’m a season ticket holder and I’m just frusrated with this team. They should be playing better than they are. I do think Skaggs will be a real good Major League pitcher. It’s been a long time since i have seen a pitcher who just stands out like skaggs does. Keep your eye on this 19 year old, he’s has “IT”.
All good, Bill. You’re always welcome here. Come back often to chat.
Brett Jackson is absolutely raking at AA.
How soon is he going to be playing at Wrigley or at the very least moved up to AAA-Iowa? And how much higher would you have him on your top-50 if you redid it?
A 1-2 top of the order: Jackson/Castro looks good for the Cubbies going forward.
Michael — I think it’s not unreasonable to think that the Cubs could jump Jackson straight from AA to the big leagues if they needed him. Obviously, it’s just April, but he’s doing exactly what they wanted him to do when they sent him back to the Southern League: dominate the level.
That being said, I don’t think they’d bring him up unless they were ready to have him play every day. And I don’t see that happening just yet. It is just April, remember. Of course, if Jackson continues to do what he’s doing, he could force their hand.
As for the Top 50, I tend not to think about re-ranking after less than a month of the Minor League season gone. He’d likely move up some — keep in mind, I rely on polling scouts, so it would depend on what they’re seeing and not just the numbers he’s putting up — but there needs to be a larger sample size before any great movement takes place.