We’re winding down here, with less than a week before the Draft. As always, I’m efforting to figure out who goes where. Some may call it a fool’s errand, but so be it.
Perhaps the one player making it the most difficult to figure out the first round is Sean Manaea. Once thought to be a potential No. 1 pick, the big, hard-throwing lefty struggled for much of this season, a hip flexor the biggest issue. Given his health issues, he has a big question mark around his name right now, making figuring out a mock draft really tough. You’ll see I put him 19th (Cardinals), but that’s not based on any solid information. I just felt someone would roll the dice on Manaea and St. Louis hasn’t shied away from taking college pitching that slides to them later in the round.
It’s all going to depend on the medical reports. There was a little talk of shoulder stiffness coming from when Manaea was supposed to start in his conference tournament, but was scratched after three warmup pitches. I don’t know if the medical report will have information on the shoulder — it’s extremely possible that whatever shoulder discomfort he felt was because of trying to overcompensate for the hip.
See? A lot of questions to be answered. One thing I can tell you is that whoever takes Manaea should not expect a discount. I’m guessing that the Manaea camp will feel it’s a temporary issue and teams should plan accordingly. Manaea was a guy who was a top of the Draft arm before the hip got in the way, that feeling goes.
Teams will take a look at the medical report, once they get it (if they haven’t done so already). If they see that it’s a non-permanent hip thing, and there are no issues with the elbow or shoulder, then they might be willing to roll the dice and take the big lefty. When healthy, stuff-wise, he belonged in conversations at the top of the Draft.
Buyer beware? Or at least buyer, be aware. Just because Sean Manaea drops does not mean he’s going to sign for that pick value (Pick No. 19, by the way, is $2,055,800).
I’m hoping to get a better sense of what might happen with the lefty as teams get a look at that all-important medical report.
As you all know, we’re running full-tilt on 2013 Draft content — just check out our 2013 section to see what I mean — currently going through our postional breakdown stories. Today’s breakdown is on high school pitchers, with a spotlight feature on Hunter Harvey (yep, that’s Bryan’s kid).
But I wanted to hop on here quickly because someone asked me a good question on Twitter (I know, shocking, right?). It comes from “The Minor League Guy” (@TMLGSports). The question basically was: Where would you put Clint Frazier on a list of high school prospects from the last five years?
I couldn’t answer that one in 140 characters so, with his permission, I wanted to tackle it here. Took me a few days longer than I had hoped, but here goes.
For the sake of this exercise, I’m sticking to high school hitters. I’d rather not try to contextualize Frazier with, say, Dylan Bundy. The biggest issue I’m finding is one of hindsight. A guy who’s been playing in the Minors and has had success — it’s had to go back to thoughts of him as an amateur, but I did my best. First, lets look at the high school hitters taken in the first round since 2009 (2009-2013 being the five-year period).
2009 (9 total)
Donavan Tate (No. 3, Padres)
Bobby Borchering (No. 16, D-backs)
Jio Mier (No. 21, Astros)
Randal Grichuk (No. 24, Angels)
Mike Trout (No. 25, Angels)
Nick Franklin (No. 27, Mariners)
Reymond Fuentes (No. 28, Red Sox)
Slade Heathcott (No. 29, Yankees)
LeVon Washington (No. 30, Rays)
Manny Machado (No. 3 pick, Orioles)
Delno DeShields (No. 8, Astros)
Jake Skoke (No. 15, Rangers)
Josh Sale (No. 17, Rays)
Kaleb Cowart (No. 18, Angels)
Kellin Deglan (No. 22, Rangers)
Christian Yelich (No. 23, Marlins)
Chevy Clarke (No. 30, Angels)
Justin O’Connor (No. 31, Rays)
Bubba Starling (No. 5, Royals)
Francisco Lindor (No. 8, Indians)
Javier Baez (No. 9, Cubs)
Brandon Nimm0 (No. 13, Mets)
Blake Swihart (No. 26, Red Sox)
Jake Hager (No. 32, Rays)
Carlos Correa (No. 1, Astros)
Byron Buxton (No. 2, Twins)
Albert Almora (No. 6, Cubs)
David Dahl (No. 10, Rockies)
Addison Russell (No. 11, A’s)
Gavin Cecchini (No. 12, Mets)
Courtney Hakwins (No. 13, White Sox)
D.J. Davis (No. 17, Blue Jays)
Corey Seager (No. 18, Dodgers)
Stryker Trahan (No. 26, D-backs)
Clint Coulter (No. 27, Brewers)
Lewis Brinson (No. 29, Rangers)
Before I try to make heads or tails of this, a couple of things stand out:
- The 2012 Draft was a good year to be a high school hitter (12 first rounders)
- Boy, the Angels and Rays like prep bats.
OK, so, now to the question. How do they rank, and how does Clint Frazier, the highest ranked high school hitter in the 2013 Draft class, figure into the mix? Here’s my best crack at ranking the top 10, openly admitting that that ol’ hindsight is playing a part:
1. Mike Trout
2. Manny Machado
3. Byron Buxton
4. Christian Yelich
5. Francisco Lindor
6. Carlos Correa
7. Javier Baez
8. Clint Frazier
9. Addison Russell
10. Bubba Starling
This leaves off some very, very good names — Franklin, Almora, Dahl — come to mind, with some others right behind them. Highly unscientific, completely subjective and, admittedly, done without consulting scouts on the matter. But perhaps fun for debate. I think you could make an argument that Frazier doesn’t belong in the top 10, perhaps a testament to the overall strength (or lack thereof) of this Draft class. I also think, with his bat speed and power and overall tools, you could argue he belongs up a touch or two higher.
What does everyone think?
Tonight, I’m getting the chance to step out of my normal environment and cover a big league game. I’m filling in, covering the Brewers tonight here at PNC Park. One of the best things about my job is getting to see the guys I’ve written about as prospects excel at this level.
Jean Segura was a prospect for a while with the Angels, even if he didn’t enter national consciousness until he was sent to Milwaukee as the key to the Zack Greinke deal. He was brought up last year and kept his head above water, impressive considering his age and that he was jumped from Double-A. This year? Well, this year he’s the talk of the early part of the season, isn’t he (he’s gone 2-for-3 thus far tonight to accentuate the point).
It made me wonder what we had written about him in the past. We started Prospect Watch in 2011, when we only did Top 10 per organization (instead of our more robust 20 now). That year, Segura was the No. 2 prospect on the Angels’ Top 10. Here’s what we had on him at the time:
Yesterday, USA Baseball released it’s Watch List of 60 amateur players for this year’s Golden Spikes Award. It’s a rolling list, meaning players can be added/subtracted, until May 28, when the group of 30 semifinalists will be announced. The Golden Spikes Award winner will be announced on MLB Network on July 19 (simulcast live on GoldenSpikesAward.com and USABaseball.com). The release states that 28 players have been added to the list from the initial watch list of 32 that came out back in February.
The watch list has amateurs from a variety of classes, but obviously, I was interested in the Draft-eligible guys on the list. With that in mind, here are the Golden Spikes watch list guys who are on MLB.com’s Top 100 Draft Prospects list. Guys in bold are the ones who are a part of the 28 who were added. I’m listing them in order of where they are on the Top 100 — it does not reflect any kind of Golden Spikes-related ranking.
1. Mark Appel, RHP, Senior, Stanford, Pac-12
2. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Junior, Oklahoma, Big 12
5. Kris Bryant, UTL, Junior, San Diego, West Coast
6. Sean Manaea, LHP, Junior, Indiana State, Missouri Valley
7. Colin Moran, IF, Junior, North Carolina, ACC
9. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Junior, Arkansas, SEC
10. D.J. Peterson, IF, Junior, New Mexico, Mountain West
15. Chris Anderson, RHP, Junior, Jacksonville, Atlantic Sun
16. Braden Shipley, RHP, Junior, Nevada, MWC
17. Marco Gonzales, LHP, Junior, Gonzaga, West Coast
22. Phillip Ervin, OF, Junior, Samford, SoCon
24. Aaron Judge, OF, Junior, Fresno State, Mountain West
28. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Junior, Mississippi, SEC
29. Tom Windle, LHP, Junior, Minnesota, Big 10
30. Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Junior, Vanderbilt, SEC
35. Eric Jagielo, IF, Junior, Notre Dame, Big East
37. Aaron Blair, RHP, Junior, Marshall, C-USA
41. Jason Hursh, RHP, RS Sophomore, Oklahoma St, Big 12
44. Michael Lorenzen, OF/RHP, Junior, Cal State Fullerton, Big West
45. Corey Knebel, RHP, Junior, Texas, Big 12
51. Trevor Williams, RHP, Junior, Arizona State, Pac-12
66. Andrew Knapp, C, Junior, California, Pac-12
68. Kent Emanuel, LHP, Junior, North Carolina, ACC
73. Matt Boyd, LHP, Senior, Oregon State, Pac-12
81. Trey Masek, RHP, Junior, Texas Tech, Big 12
94. Hunter Renfroe, OF, Junior, Mississippi State, SEC
100. Buck Farmer, RHP, Senior, Georgia Tech, ACC
A total of 27 Top 100 guys on the watch list, including five who have been added since that February list. Fifteen on this watch list are in the Top 30 Draft prospects, for whatever that’s worth.
The first month of the season is in the books, so it’s time to take a look at which prospects performed the best over the opening weeks of the season. Small sample size? Sure, but it’s fun to see who broke out of the gates well among the prospects on the Top 100 list.
Hitters (It’s good to be a Twins fan)
Byron Buxton, Twins (No. 19 overall, No. 2 on Twins Top 20) — 1.194
Miguel Sano, Twins (No. 12 overall, No. 1 on Twins Top 20) — 1.183
Nick Franklin, Mariners (No. 45 overall, No. 4 on Mariners Top 20) — 1.1161
Nolan Arenado, Rockies (No. 60 overall, No. 2 on Rockies Top 20) — 1.059
George Springer, Astros (No. 55 overall, No. 3 on Astros Top 20) — 1.056
Sano — 9
Springer — 8
Courtney Hawkins, White Sox (No. 65 overall, No. 1 on White Sox Top 20) — 7
Joc Pederson, Dodgers (No. 81 overall, No. 3 on Dodgers Top 20) — 6
Javier Baez, Cubs (No. 16 overall, No. 1 on Cubs Top 20) — 5
Mike Zunino, Mariners (No. 23 overall, No. 3 on Mariners Top 20) — 26
Sano — 24
Arenado — 21
Buxton — 21
Springer — 20
Billy Hamilton, Reds (No. 11 overall, No. 1 on Reds Top 20) — 15
Buxton — 9
Gregory Polanco, Pirates (No. 62 overall, No. 4 on Pirates Top 20) — 9
Luis Sardinas, Rangers (No. 80 overall, No. 3 on Rangers Top 20) — 8
Francisco Lindor, Indians (No. 14 overall, No. 1 on Indians Top 20) — 7
Pederson — 7
Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks (No. 24 overall, No. 2 on D-backs Top 20) — 1.26
Taijuan Walker, Mariners (No. 5 overall, No. 1 on Mariners Top 20) — 1.55
Jesse Biddle, Phillies (No. 58 overall, No. 1 on Phillies Top 20) — 1.74
Michael Wacha, Cardinals (No. 79 overall, No. 5 on Cardinals Top 20) — 1.86
Gerrit Cole, Pirates (No. 9 overall, No. 1 on Pirates Top 20) — 2.32
A Bradley — 43
Biddle — 40
Jake Odorizzi, Rays (No. 43 overall, No. 3 on Rays Top 20)– 36
Zack Wheeler, Mets (No. 8 overall, No. 2 on Mets Top 20)– 36
Chris Archer, Rays — 35 (No. 44 overall, No. 4 on Rays Top 20) — 35
Batting average against