December 2013

Thoughts on the Matt Davidson-Addison Reed trade

Interesting deal announced today, no? A young big league closer for a solid third base prospect. So, who’s the winner?

Twitter was blowing up about it, with most people feeling the White Sox by far got the better end of the deal by getting Davidson, who should have every chance to be Chicago’s starting third baseman in 2014. I had some good back-and-forth with Jason Parks from Baseball Prospectus (@ProfessorParks) and Mike Newman (@ROTOScouting) of RotoScouting.com about it, if you want to check that out.

I think I’m probably the biggest fan of Davidson of the three of us (he was No. 64 on our Top 100, for whatever that’s worth), though I’m not delusional about him. There’s some question about whether he can stay at third — some think he can’t — but I think he’ll be adequate there. And I think there’s enough bat there for him to be a solid regular at the hot corner.

Does that mean the White Sox won this deal? I’m not quite ready to go there just yet. Reed is a 25-year-old closer with 69 saves over the past two years, including 40 in 2013. It also should be noted that he won’t be arbitration eligible until 2015, so the D-backs have two years of closing on the cheap. And they can let Brad Ziegler go back to setting up if they so choose (or the other way around). Or J.J. Putz could reclaim the role and Arizona could have a very solid pen. So I can see the value there.

The larger question is: Does an everyday third baseman trump a relief pitcher? Assuming you believe Davidson can be a regular at third, then it depends on how productive he can be. I think he has the chance to be good enough offensively to give Chicago a slight edge in this deal, though maybe not by as much as some on Twitter were initially saying.

I’ve had the pleasure of doing stories on both of these guys over the years. I dug up a feature I did on Reed when he had gone from being San Diego State’s closer to replacing some guy named Strasburg in their rotation.

I wrote about Davidson this past summer, when he won the Futures Game MVP Award. And here’s the on-field video interview I did with him:

More fun with Rule 5 research

Jim Callis and I are dilligently working on digging up names that seem likely/possible to go in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft. That list will be live on the site later today. For now, I thought I’d play with the research I did on the Rule 5 Drafts 2006-2013. In a recent post, I talked about how pitching is always popular in Rule 5 Drafts. Now I want to look at team involvement.

It probably surprises no one that the Houston Astros are at the top of the list, with nine Major League phase selections since 2009. But they’re tied with the Phillies. The Nationals are next with eight, the Mets and Orioles at seven, the Pirates and Padres at six. Here’s the complete list.

TM #
HOU 9
PHI 9
WAS 8
NYM 7
BAL 7
PIT 6
SD 6
ARI 5
CHC 5
KC 5
MIN 5
SEA 5
TB 5
BOS 4
MIA 4
MIL 4
NYY 4
OAK 4
CIN 3
SF 3
STL 3
TOR 3
CLE 2
ATL 1
CWS 1
COL 1
DET 1
TEX 1

There must be something in Los Angeles… Neither the Dodgers nor the Angels have made a Major League phase pick in the past seven Rule 5 Drafts.

OK, what about the flip side? Which organization has been raided the most? Houston and Seattle are the two teams who haven’t had a player taken from their systems. The Angels make up for not taking any players by having the most taken, at 10. The Yankees, Red Sox and Indians have each been raided nine times. Again, here’s the complete list:

TM #
LAA 10
BOS 9
CLE 9
NYY 9
CHC 8
TB 7
WAS 7
MIN 6
BAL 5
ATL 4
COL 4
CWS 4
MIL 4
SF 4
CIN 3
DET 3
LA 3
NYM 3
PIT 3
STL 3
ARI 2
KC 2
PHI 2
SD 2
TEX 2
MIA 1
OAK 1
TOR 1

Marlins looking for a third baseman? There’s one in their system

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — One of the bigger rumors that’s been floating around the lobby here has been that the Marlins are looking to 1. Trade Logan Morrison and/or 2. Bring in a third baseman.

Juan Uribe has been mentioned, though he’s reportedly looking for a three-year deal. No specific names have surfaced in terms of trade returns for Morrison, though there has been some talk of them wanting a big-league ready, or close to big-league ready third baseman in return.

One thing, though, that the Marlins do need to consider, is that they have a pretty good third base prospect in their system already. Miami drafted Colin Moran with the sixth overall pick in the 2013 Draft with the hopes that he could be a fairly quick to Miami advanced college bat. He fared well in full-season ball during his debut, then went on to the Arizona Fall League and we named him the No. 14 prospect in the AFL after he started slowly, but adjusted and finished well. He’s currently the No. 72 prospect on MLB.com’s Top 100, No. 4 on the Marlins Top 20 and fifth among third base prospects.

The question is, of course, just how quickly he can be ready for the big leagues. There seems to be some debate over that. The Marlins took him that early clearly believing it would be a short trip up the ladder and they hope he can hit Miami in 2015 and that has entered into their internal discussions about moves to make. Does that mean Uribe and his three years are off the table? Not sure yet, but I bet it’s being talked about with Moran in mind.

I talked to some scouts who saw him in the Fall League and got some different feedback. One scout thought back end of 2015 was reasonable. Another didn’t see him as quite a quick a riser, saying he thought it would take 2-3 years, with the more conservative projection more likely. Our own Bernie Pleskoff is more in line with that evaluation after having seen him multiple times in Arizona. It’s not that Bernie (follow him on Twitter @BerniePleskoff) doesn’t like him at all, but he’s skeptical about his ability to get there quickly and will need some development time to iron his game out.

Pitching all the rage in the Rule 5

A couple of days ago, I wrote a preview on the Rule 5 Draft that included some numbers on how many Rule 5 picks since 2006 (when the rules dictating roster protection changed) stuck in the big leagues the following year and/or remained in the big leagues (hint: more than you probably thought).

Now here at the lovely Dolphin & Swan in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, I had some time to play with the research a little more. It shouldn’t come as too big of a surprise that a vast majority of players taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 have been pitchers. To be precise, of the 121 players taken from 2006-2012, 88 were pitchers. Most of them (61) were right-handed. Here’s the breakdown, keeping in mind the infielders groupings are little loose as many of those taken played, or were asked to play, multiple positions (for instance, there are a few guys who are listed as “INF”):

RHP     61
LHP     27
OF        10
SS          6
C            5
2B         4
1B          3
INF       3
3B         2

That’s a breakdown of all the guys taken. What about the guys who stuck inn the big leagues the next year, a total of 38 players? Here’s how that looked:

RHP    21
LHP      7
SS         3
OF        2
1B         2
2B        1
C          1
INF      1

What’s the takeaway from all of this? If you’re looking at Thursday’s Rule 5 picks and trying to guess which ones have a shot, go with the pitching.

And that’s one to grow on.

What Erisbel Arruebarruena might bring to an MLB team

My colleague Jesse Sanchez recently wrote a good story on the next wave of Cuban prospects on its way to Major League Baseball. One of them, who recently defected, is former Cuban National Team shortstop Erisbel Arruebarruena.

I just talked to a scout who is in the Dominican Republic watching the 23-year-old Arruebarruena to see if he’ll be worth pursuing. From his evaluation, it sounds like he will certainly bring some Major League-caliber skills to a team, but he doesn’t see him as a true impact player, like a Cespedes, Puig or Chapman. Here’s his thoughts on what he’s seen of Arruebarruena:

“He’s what you’ve been reading. He’s a very good defensive player. His glove is very close to the big leagues. The bat, you kind of think he’s one of those guys who’ll bat down in the order. He can really play shortstop, if that’s the type of player you’re interested in. He’ll be a quality defensive shortstop in the Major Leagues, but you wonder if he’s going to hit. Some of the others who have come recently – Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria — I felt more confident about the bat. We’ll have to hear what the money is. This isn’t like watching Aroldis Chapman or Yeonis Cespedes. You’re not going to hear from 15 teams. You’ll hear from teams that are hurting a little bit at shortstop.”

A 2014 Mock Draft Top 10

Our first look at the Class of 2014, a Draft Top 50, is live and ready for your perusal over on Prospect Watch. You can also read Jim Callis’ look at the class and my feature on No. 1 prospect Carlos Rodon over on MLBPipeline.com.

Just for fun, Jim and I decided to do a quick Top 10 Mock Draft. Yes, we realize it’s a fool’s errand. Yes, we understand that a whole lot can and will change in the spring. But we figured, why not? It’s a fun exercise. Check out Jim’s Top 10 at Callis’ Corner and compare to mine here. You can check out the full Draft order as well.

So here it goes…

1. Houston Astros: Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State: About as no-brainer as it can be at this point, it’d be more of a surprise if he didn’t go No. 1.

2. Miami Marlins: Alex Jackson, C/OF, Rancho Bernardo HS, Calif.: The top high school player in the class and the Marlins haven’t shied away from taking exciting young bats (see Yelich, Christian).

3. Chicago White Sox: Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina: The White Sox like their athletes, but they also like big, strong starting pitching. After Rodon, Hoffman is the best in the class.

4. Chicago Cubs: Trea Turner, SS, NC State: How about a future left side of the infield featuring Kris Bryant, the No. 2 pick in the 2013 Draft, and Turner, a leadoff type with 80 speed?

5: Minnesota Twins: Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt: A former first-round pick back in 2011, look for Beede to answer questions about his command this spring and be among the top college arms taken in June.

6. Seattle Mariners: Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS, Calif.: The power is more than legit, but there are some questions about the hit tool… not enough to keep him out of Top 10 consideration.

7. Philadelphia Phillies: Michael Gettys, OF, Gainesville HS, Ga.: The Phillies have taken a high schooler with their first pick in each of the last six Drafts. They seem to like toolsy position players and Gettys fits that description perfectly.

8. Colorado Rockies: Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU: After nabbing Jonathan Gray at No. 3 in 2013, adding Nola could give them a very nice 1-2 punch that could get to Coors Field in a hurry.

9. Toronto Blue Jays: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS, Texas: It might be too easy to give the Blue Jays the top high-ceiling high school arm available, but they don’t shy away from rolling the dice in that fashion.

10. New York Mets: Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia: After going the high school position player route in the first round for the last three Drafts, maybe the Mets go for a more advanced player. If not a pitcher, then a bat like Fisher, relying on the fact that UVa. bats tend to perform better in the pro game. (more…)

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