February 2014

An uber Top 100

The Top 100 season is more or less behind us, with most everyone having put out their version of the list. Some have even put out some version of what I’m going to list below, which is a composite list, smooshing together all of the lists to come up with a consensus ranking.

There are so many lists out there these days, but I’ve decided to limit the uber-100 (plus) to five lists: Ours at MLBPipeline.com (duh); Baseball America; Keith Law at ESPN (subscription needed); Baseball Prospectus, courtesy of Jason Parks; and FanGraphs, from Marc Hulet.

Rather than assign points, I used an average ranking. Anyone not on a list got a 101 ranking.

Some notes:

  • 70 players appeared on all 5 lists. Another 11 appeared on 4 of the 5, 18 were on 3 of the 5.
  • I did not include the three guys on BA’s list who aren’t eligible for ours (Masahiro Tanaka, Josey Abreu, Carlos Martinez), there were 135 total prospects mentioned on a list somewhere.
  • The biggest differences in our list from average, in terms of us having a guy higher on the list than the average: Allen Webster (+41.4), Lance McCullers Jr (+34.4) and Jake Odorizzi (+24)
  • The biggest differences between us and  the average, with us having a guy lower down on our list: Matt Wisler (-28.2), J.P. Crawford (-25.8) and Braden Shipley (-25).
  • There was unanimity only on the top two guys, Byron Buxton and Xander Bogaerts. Four of the five lists had Oscar Taveras at No. 3. The first 62 names did appear on all five rankings.

Food for thought. The list is 135 deep, and I didn’t do anything in particular to break ties. Here it is:

Rank Name Pos Team AVG Lists
1 Byron Buxton OF MIN 1.00 5
2 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS 2.00 5
3 Oscar Taveras OF STL 3.40 5
4 Javier Baez SS CHC 5.40 5
5 Carlos Correa SS HOU 6.60 5
6 Archie Bradley RHP ARI 7.40 5
7 Miguel Sano 3B MIN 8.40 5
8 Addison Russell SS OAK 8.80 5
9 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 9.40 5
10 Taijuan Walker RHP SEA 9.60 5
11 Kris Bryant 3B CHC 11.00 5
12 Jonathan Gray RHP COL 14.00 5
13 Gregory Polanco OF PIT 15.40 5
14 Noah Syndergaard RHP NYM 16.00 5
15 George Springer OF HOU 18.40 5
16 Dylan Bundy RHP BAL 20.00 5
17 Robert Stephenson RHP CIN 20.00 5
18 Jameson Taillon RHP PIT 20.80 5
19 Kevin Gausman RHP BAL 21.80 5
20 Lucas Giolito RHP WAS 22.40 5
21 Mark Appel RHP HOU 22.80 5
22 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC 23.20 5
23 Eddie Butler RHP COL 24.60 5
24 Albert Almora OF CHC 25.60 5
25 Austin Hedges C SD 27.20 5
26 Aaron Sanchez RHP TOR 27.60 5
27 Nick Castellanos 3B DET 29.20 5
28 Andrew Heaney LHP MIA 30.80 5
29 Yordano Ventura RHP KC 31.20 5
30 Corey Seager SS LAD 32.20 5
31 Tyler Glasnow RHP PIT 35.60 5
32 Raul Adalberto Mondesi SS KC 36.40 5
33 Travis d’Arnaud C NYM 36.60 5
34 Maikel Franco 3B PHI 37.00 5
35 Alex Meyer RHP MIN 38.00 5
36 Jackie Bradley OF BOS 38.40 5
37 Kyle Crick RHP SF 40.20 5
38 Jorge Soler OF CHC 42.00 5
39 Joc Pederson OF LAD 43.80 5
40 Clint Frazier OF CLE 44.40 5
41 Jorge Alfaro C TEX 46.40 5
42 Rougned Odor 2B TEX 46.80 5
43 Julio Urias LHP LAD 47.40 5
44 Billy Hamilton OF CIN 48.20 5
45 Matt Wisler RHP SD 49.80 5
46 Lucas Sims RHP ATL 50.00 5
47 Marcus Stroman RHP TOR 50.20 5
48 Henry Owens LHP BOS 50.60 5
49 Kohl Stewart RHP MIN 50.80 5
50 Max Fried LHP SD 52.00 5
51 Austin Meadows OF PIT 53.20 5
52 Braden Shipley RHP ARI 54.00 5
53 Eduardo Rodriguez LHP BAL 54.60 5
54 Gary Sanchez C NYY 55.80 5
55 Mike Foltyniewicz RHP HOU 56.60 5
56 Garin Cecchini 3B BOS 57.20 5
57 C.J. Edwards RHP CHC 59.20 5
58 Colin Moran 3B MIA 61.20 5
59 Chris Owings SS ARI 61.40 5
60 Kolten Wong 2B STL 64.00 5
61 Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU 64.40 5
62 Blake Swihart C BOS 65.60 5
63 A.J. Cole RHP WAS 67.00 4
64 Jesse Biddle LHP PHI 67.00 5
65 David Dahl OF COL 70.00 5
66 Erik Johnson RHP CWS 71.60 5
67 Mookie Betts 2B BOS 71.60 4
68 J.P. Crawford SS PHI 75.20 3
69 Stephen Piscotty OF STL 75.60 5
70 Hunter Harvey RHP BAL 76.00 3
71 Eddie Rosario 2B MIN 77.40 3
72 Zach Lee RHP LAD 77.60 5
73 Alen Hanson SS PIT 78.40 4
74 Nick Kingham RHP PIT 78.60 4
75 Matt Davidson 3B CWS 79.00 5
76 Arismendy Alcantara 2B CHC 79.00 5
77 Jake Marisnick OF MIA 79.60 4
78 Jake Odorizzi RHP TB 80.00 4
79 Rafael Montero RHP NYM 81.60 4
80 D.J. Peterson 3B SEA 81.80 4
81 Dom Smith 1B NYM 82.00 3
82 Christian Bethancourt C ATL 82.60 5
83 Miguel Almonte RHP KC 84.80 3
84 Lance McCullers Jr. RHP HOU 86.40 2
85 Reese McGuire C PIT 86.40 3
86 Allen Webster RHP BOS 87.40 2
87 Matt Barnes RHP BOS 87.60 4
88 Jonathan Schoop 2B BAL 87.60 3
89 Justin Nicolino LHP MIA 87.80 3
90 Rosell Herrera SS COL 88.20 3
91 Luis Sardinas SS TEX 89.40 3
92 Phillip Ervin OF CIN 89.40 2
93 Delino DeShields Jr. OF HOU 89.80 2
94 Joey Gallo 3B TEX 89.80 3
95 Josh Bell OF PIT 90.00 3
96 Taylor Guerrieri RHP TB 90.20 3
97 Michael Choice OF TEX 90.20 3
98 Vincent Velazquez RHP HOU 90.40 2
99 Edwin Escobar LHP SF 90.80 2
100 Pierce Johnson RHP CHC 91.20 4
101 Hak-Ju Lee SS TB 91.40 3
102 Trevor Bauer RHP CLE 91.80 2
103 J.O. Berrios RHP MIN 92.00 3
104 Josmil Pinto C MIN 92.00 1
105 Jorge Bonifacio OF KC 92.80 4
106 Mason Williams OF NYY 93.00 2
107 Brian Goodwin OF WAS 93.40 3
108 James Paxton LHP SEA 94.00 2
109 Jimmy Nelson RHP MIL 94.40 3
110 Chi Chi Gonzalez RHP TEX 94.80 1
111 Wilmer Flores 3B NYM 95.00 1
112 Hunter Renfroe OF SD 95.40 2
113 Alberto Tirado RHP TOR 96.00 1
114 Enny Romero LHP TB 96.20 2
115 Sean Manaea LHP KC 96.40 1
116 Devon Travis 2B DET 97.60 1
117 Trey Ball LHP BOS 97.60 2
118 Nick Williams OF TEX 97.60 2
119 Tyler Austin OF NYY 97.80 1
120 Alex Colome RHP TB 98.00 1
121 Casey Kelly RHP SD 98.20 1
122 Marcus Semein INF CWS 99.00 1
123 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM 99.20 1
124 Roberto Osuna RHP TOR 99.40 1
125 Taylor Lindsey 2B LAA 99.40 1
126 Nick Ciuffo C TB 99.80 1
127 Chris Anderson RHP LAD 100.00 1
128 Hunter Dozier SS KC 100.00 1
129 Robbie Ray LHP DET 100.20 1
130 Raimel Tapia OF COL 100.20 1
131 Tim Anderson SS CWS 100.40 1
132 Alexander Reyes RHP STL 100.40 1
133 Jose Peraza SS ATL 100.60 1
134 Mitch Nay 3B TOR 100.80 1
135 Rob Kaminsky LHP STL 100.80 1

College roundup — weekend #1

The college baseball season got underway last weekend and even though weather wreaked some havoc, there were enough names from our Draft Top 50 (from the fall) who did get to play. A quick rundown of who did what over the weekend, in order of where they are ranked on the Top 50 (hopefully this will become a regular feature):

1. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, L vs. Canisius

2. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, ND vs. James Madison

4. Trea Turner, SS, NC State: 3-4, SB vs. Canisius

6. Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt: 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W @ Long Beach State

11. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, W vs. New Orleans

14. Kyle Schwarber, C, Indiana: 3-for-15, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K @ Texas Tech

15. Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia: 5-for-11, 5 R, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K @ Hughes Brothers Challenge

17. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford: Did not play

19. Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco: 6-for-12, 3 R, 2 2B, 1 SB, 2 BB, 1 K @ UC Riverside

20. Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State: 8-for-13, 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 2B, 2 BB vs. Middle Tenn. State

21. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 13 K, W vs. Jacksonville

22. Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV: 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, W vs. Central Michigan

23. Luke Weaver, RHP, Florda St.: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, W vs. Niagara

24. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, W @ Lipscomb

27. Michael Cederoth, RHP, San Diego St.: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, L @ San Jose St.

28. Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon St.:  5-for-10, 5 R, 8 RBIs, 1 2B, 4 BB @Husker Classic

30. Matt Chapman, 3B, Fullerton:  4-for-13, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 2B vs. Washington St.

33. Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville:  1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, W @Homewood Suites Tournament

36. Dylan Davis, OF, Oregon St.: 4-for-12, 1 R, 5 RBI, 1 @B, 2 BB, 3 K @Husker Classic

45. J.D. Davis, OF/RHP , Fullerton:  5-13, 4 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR; 1 IP ,1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, W, vs. Washington St.

Some feedback from scouts:

  • Two mentioned Erick Fedde’s performance against Central Michigan as being impressive (and thought Jordan Foley from Central Michigan was pretty good, though he’s more of a 2nd-3rd round type).
  • While Luke Weaver’s numbers looked good agaist Niagara, one scout thought he was just so-so. Weaver pitched at 90-91 with a short slider and a decent changeup.

A few early 2014 Draft notes

Yes, you heard me. You might be reading this while looking out at snow and ice, but not only are pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training, but the amateur season has started in some of the warm weather areas.

Over the past week or so, I’ve been starting to get some info from scouts who are already hitting the road and making sure they’re seeing as many players as they can between now and the Draft. And I’ll try to relay any pertinent information when I can, hopefully in a slightly  more timely fashion. But I do have reports on early outings from a pair of intriguing high school arms.

 

Sean Reid-Foley, ranked No. 31 in the Draft Top 50 we released last fall, made his first outing recently in Florida at his Sandalwood High School’s kickoff tournament. The right-hander wasn’t really sharp, but that’s not so surprising given how early it is. For his first outing of the year, he was still fairly efficient, throwing his fastball 90-94 mph while also using an 82-87 mph slider and 82-85 mph changeup throughout his three innings.

Heading way out west, Kodi Medeiros also got a lot of early attention for his first outing. Several scouting directors made the trip out to Hawaii (who wouldn’t?) to watch the lefty ranked No. 25 on that Top 50). He didn’t disappoint, striking out seven in 2 2/3 innings. His fastball sat in the 92-94 mph range with good arm side life and his slider was really tough to hit, a 79-81 sweeping breaking ball.

Obviously, it’s early and there’s much, much more to come. But I thought this might whet the appetites of the Draft fans out there.

Tri tri again with prospects

Our most recent Pipeline Perspectives is up on the MLBPipeline.com now. Jim Callis and I debate which teams have the best trio of prospects in the game. I went for the Cubs combination of Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Albert Almora. Jim advocated for the Twins trio of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer.

As we’ve tried to get in the habit of doing, both of us are blogging about the subject as well. Jim ranked his favorites. By now, you know me… I like using our Prospect Points system to see how things shake out. So I took the top trio from every organization that had three or more prospects in the Top 100 (the Red Sox could have had three trios, for example, but I only took one) and ranked them using our points system. A quick refresher: 100 points for the No. 1 prospect, 99 for No. 2, all the way down to one point for the last prospect in the Top 100. Here’s what the “standings” look like:

Rank Trios Org Points
1 Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer MIN 270
2 Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora CHC 269
3 Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, George Springer HOU 257
4 Gregory Polanco, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow PIT 247
5 Xander Bogaerts, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley BOS 238
6 Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura, Raul Alberto Mondesi KC 205
7 Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, Rafael Montero NYM 185
8 Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez BAL 184
9 Jonathan Gray, Eddie Butler, David Dahl COL 177
10 Francisco Lindor, Clint Frazier, Trevor Bauer CLE 172
11 Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Zach Lee LAD 170
12 Andrew Heaney, Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick MIA 158
13 Austin Hedges, Max Fried, Matt Wisler SD 158
14 Oscar Taveras, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty STL 144
15 Archie Bradley, Chris Owings, Braden Shipley ARI 142
16 Jorge Alfaro, Rougned Odor, Michael Choice TEX 133
17 Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna TOR 132
18 Jake Odorizzi, Hak-Ju Lee, Taylor Guerrieri TB 69

More dynamic (pitching) duos

In today’s MLBPipeline Perspectives, Jim Callis and I debated which teams we thought had the best pitching prospects tandem in baseball. Jim went with Jon Gray and Eddie Butler of the Rockies. I opted for the right-handed combo of Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow from the Pirates.

Jim went on to blog his rankings for the top pitching prospect duos in the game over on Callis’ Corner. I must admit I’m a bit dismayed he put my Taillon-Glasnow third on his list, but I’ll get over it.

To extract some measure of revenge, however, I wanted to provide my own rankings, of a sort. I used it in my argument in picking Taillon and Glasnow: the Prospect Points. That’s the system we used to provide an organizational standings from the Top 100 list. I used the same idea — 100 points for the No.1 prospect, 99 for No. 2 (Jon Gray gets 87 points for being No. 14, as a result)., etc. Using this system, here’s how the top tandems in the Top 100 (only one pairing for an organization listed eve if they have more than two pitchers in the Top 100) stack up:

1. Taillon and Glasnow, Pirates: 165 points. I rest my case.

2. Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, Orioles: 159 points. Jim’s not the only one who can put the O’s No. 2.

3. Gray and Butler, Rockies: 147 points. A distant third.

4. Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura, Royals: 142 points. A lot of power coming towards KC.

5. Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart, Twins: 134 points. Stewart’s development could raise their stock.

6. Mark Appel and Lance McCullers Jr.: 133 points. Even if McCullers ends up a reliever, this is a good tandem.

7. Henry Owens and Allen Webster, Red Sox: 126. First lefty mentioned on this list.

8. Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays: 124. If you told me this duo would outperform some ahead, I wouldn’t argue.

9. Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley, D-backs: 118. Shipley is one of my picks for guys in the 51-100 range who could jump up the list in his first full seaosn.

10. Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, Mets: 106. Music to Mets fans ears as both are close to contributing in New York.

11. Andrew Heaney and Justin Nicolino, Marlins: 92. The only double-lefty combo; both could be established in Miami’s rotation by 2015.

12. Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole, Nationals: 89. I’d keep an eye on this pair, they could move up this ranking in a hurry.

13. Max Fried and Matt Wisler, Padres: 81. I think Fried could establish himself as top lefty by end of year.

14. Kyle Crick and Edwin Escobar, Giants: 75. Interesting combination of power (Crick) and more pitchability (Escobar).

15. Zach Lee and Julio Urias, Dodgers: 75. Urias is so young, but if the lefty keeps doing what he’s done so far, he’ll move up quickly.

16. C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, Cubs: 60. Chicago known more for its hitting prospects right now, but this is still a solid duo.

17. Jake Odorizzi and Taylor Guerrieri, Rays: 52. Guerrieri’s suspension and injury hurt their standing.

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