Backwards thinking
By now, you know me and how I think. It's a little different in B3-land, as I tend to skew towards prospects, the Minor Leagues and the Draft. Case in point: the MLB Standings. While most would marvel at the Yankees playing .640 ball or the Cardinals closing in on clinching the NL Central, I look at it backwards -- or is it upside-down? In any case, when someone asks me, "Who's No. 1?", I'm not looking at the best record. Quite the opposite. I'm looking at the worst record, or who's going to get the No. 1 pick in the 2010 Draft.
So I've got a little spreadsheet going with the "reverse standings" on it. I've decided to share it with you. Keep in mind that I haven't bothered to figure out tiebreakers yet for teams with the same record (didn't seem worth it with a few weeks in the season left). I am also aware that free agent signings will wreak some havoc with the second half of the first round. It also doesn't include the compensation picks for the Texas Rangers (14a) and Tampa Bay Rays (30a) for not signing their respective 2009 first-round picks. This is what it looks like heading into today's games. Unless there's a surge in the nation's capital and/or a collapse in KC, it's looking like the Nats will get the top pick for the second year in a row:
So I've got a little spreadsheet going with the "reverse standings" on it. I've decided to share it with you. Keep in mind that I haven't bothered to figure out tiebreakers yet for teams with the same record (didn't seem worth it with a few weeks in the season left). I am also aware that free agent signings will wreak some havoc with the second half of the first round. It also doesn't include the compensation picks for the Texas Rangers (14a) and Tampa Bay Rays (30a) for not signing their respective 2009 first-round picks. This is what it looks like heading into today's games. Unless there's a surge in the nation's capital and/or a collapse in KC, it's looking like the Nats will get the top pick for the second year in a row:
| Team | W | L | PCT | GA | |
| 1 | Washington | 47 | 90 | 0.343 | |
| 2 | Kansas City | 52 | 85 | 0.380 | 5 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 54 | 82 | 0.397 | 7.5 |
| 4 | Baltimore | 54 | 79 | 0.409 | 9 |
| 5 | San Diego | 61 | 78 | 0.439 | 13 |
| 6 | Arizona | 61 | 78 | 0.439 | 13 |
| 7 | Cleveland | 60 | 76 | 0.441 | 13.5 |
| 8 | Oakland | 61 | 76 | 0.445 | 14 |
| 9 | Toronto | 61 | 76 | 0.445 | 14 |
| 10 | NY Mets | 62 | 75 | 0.453 | 15 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 63 | 74 | 0.460 | 16 |
| 12 | Milwaukee | 66 | 71 | 0.482 | 19 |
| 13 | Houston | 67 | 70 | 0.489 | 20 |
| 14 |
Chi Sox | 69 | 70 | 0.496 | 21 |
| 15 | Minnesota | 69 | 68 | 0.504 | 22 |
| 16 | Chi Cubs | 69 | 67 | 0.507 | 22.5 |
| 17 | Atlanta | 70 | 67 | 0.511 | 23 |
| 18 | Seattle | 72 | 66 | 0.522 | 24.5 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay | 72 | 66 | 0.522 | 24.5 |
| 20 | Florida | 72 | 65 | 0.526 | 25 |
| 21 | Detroit | 75 | 61 | 0.551 | 28.5 |
| 22 | San Francisco | 76 | 62 | 0.551 | 28.5 |
| 23 | Texas | 76 | 60 | 0.559 | 29.5 |
| 24 | Colorado | 78 | 60 | 0.565 | 30.5 |
| 25 | Philadelphia | 77 | 58 | 0.570 | 31 |
| 26 | Boston | 79 | 58 | 0.577 | 32 |
| 27 | St. Louis | 82 | 57 | 0.590 | 34 |
| 28 | LA Dodgers | 82 | 57 | 0.590 | 34 |
| 29 | LA Angels | 81 | 55 | 0.596 | 34.5 |
| 30 | NY Yankees | 89 | 50 | 0.640 | 41 |

The Nats hold the tiebreaker with every team givent hey had the worst record in 2008.
Their Tragic Number with the Royals is currently at 20. Any combination of Royals wins & Nats losses that total 20 means the Nats again pick #1 overall.
As of today, there 17 teams with a chance at the #1 overall pick, but Atlanta, Minnesota, both Chicago teams, Houston and Milwaukee are hanging on by a thread.
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I don't know if you read Andy Seiler's blog, but he updates a projected draft order for next year, complete with tiebreakers and compensation picks, every few days. Here's the most recent one:
http://mlbbonusbaby.com/2009/09/07/2010-draft-order-updated-thru-september-6/
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