Just who did the Yankees get for Burnett?
The deal is now official and A.J. Burnett is a Pirate. I think this was a good deal for the Pirates, a flier worth taking. Rather than get into that into too much detail, I suggest you read my colleague Matthew Leach’s take on it. He’s smarter than I am anyway.
One of the things that does make it a positive is that the Pirates didn’t give up too much from their ever-improving farm system to get him. Not that long ago, of course, any trade that sent minor leaguers away from Pittsburgh hurt. But there’s so much more depth now. Even if the Pirates don’t have the top system in baseball, it’s come a long way. I noticed it particularly when I was constructing their Top 20 prospects list. It used to be difficult to find 20 guys worthy of being listed on such a rankings. Now there are leftovers who could be legitimate prospects in the future.
When you have some depth, you can trade a couple of pieces away and not have it derail efforts to build a system up. In the past, a player like Diego Moreno, the pitcher going to the Yankees in the Burnett deal, may have been protected on the 40-man roster. But not this past offseason.
The 25-year-old Moreno, signed back in 2006 for $6,000 out of Venezuela, hasn’t exactly moved quickly, with just a smattering of games above A ball. And yes, he had some disciplinary problems earlier. But he does have arm strength that’s allowed him to strike out 9.8 per nine batters. He’s also walked only 2.3 per nine and a scout I spoke with said he’s generally a strike-thrower. When he first signed, he was throwing about 86-88 mph. Today, he’ll touch 98 mph and couples it with a wipe-out slider that breaks bats. He’s started and relieved, with most thinking that his plus two-pitch mix is ideal for bullpen work. He still needs to show he can get hitters out at higher levels, but perhaps his strong showing in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason will help.
The Pirates spent much more to sign the second player in the deal, outfielder Exicardo Cayones. Both Cayones and Moreno were signed by Latin American scouting director Rene Gayo and scouting supervisor Rodolfo Petit in Venezuela. The Pirates gave Cayones $400,000 in 2008, the most they had paid any player from Venezuela (It had been noted it was the largest payout given to any international amateur player by the Pirates and that was true, at least until they gave Mexican RHP Luis Heredia $2.6 million in 2010.
Cayones is still just 20, so there’s time for him to tap into his solid tools. He’s a graceful player who still needs to develop and mature physically. He’s received comps to Carlos Beltran, both in terms of his actions and temperament. For him to reach his potential, though, he’ll have to show a little more intensity, a little more sense of urgency in his game. He’s spent two summers in the Gulf Coast League and will have to show soon an ability to move up and face the challenge of a more advanced league.
So while the Yankees largely made this deal to rid themselves of Burnett and a chunk of his salary, and while the Pirates didn’t give up anyone “of note” for Burnett, there is the chance that this pair of Venezuelans could pay some dividends. The chances might be slim, the payoff might not be huge and it may take some time, but there is a little talent there to keep an eye on in the coming years.
The Burnett deal: Who the Pirates won’t include
Well, it looks like this A.J. Burnett to the Pirates trade is all but official. One thing that’s not known at this point is who the Pirates are sending to the Yankees in return, other than what are being considered “low-level prospects.” So the question is: What does low-level mean?
There are some obvious prospects who won’t be on the table either, starting with names on the Top 20 list.I’ve been told by a source that no one on that current Top 20 is involved in this deal. So, Pirates fans who were worried that “low-level” for one person might not be for someone else, you can relax. Anyone from the 2011 Draft is excluded anyway — you can’t trade them yet — so here are the rest of the names of Pirates prospects who will not be included in this deal:
Jameson Taillon
Starling Marte
Stetson Allie
Luis Heredia
Tony Sanchez
Robbie Grossman
Jeff Locke
Justin Wilson
Kyle McPherson
Nick Kingham
Rudy Owens
Bryan Morris
Alen Hanson
Colton Cain
Zack Von Rosenberg
Jarek Cunningham
More as I can get info…
Annnnd, we’re back
If you’ve been over on Prospect Watch the last couple of weeks, I’m hoping you’ll understand why I haven’t been on here in a while. We’ve provided quite a bit of prospect-related content over there:
- Top 10 by position
- Top 100 overall
- Top 20 per organzation
That’s at least 600 player profiles for your perusal. Needless to say, this took a while to put together. It was largely a labor of love (at least that’s what I tell myself). I’d also like to say that every effort like this has unsung heroes, those who do all the heavy lifting but don’t get any credit. For Prospect Watch, that person is Jason Ratliff, who’d likely get annoyed I mentioned him in this capacity. But without him, Prospect Watch doesn’t exist. Plain and simple.
Please look around PW (as we like to call it) and let me know what you like, don’t like, etc. I’ll leave you with 2 questions and with a promise to start blogging more consistently again.
1. Who is the best prospect not listed on a team Top 20? Give a few nominees if you’d like in comments.
2. What else would you like to see on PW? Some things we might have in the works include an international amateur Top 20 and a Draft Top 100… so keep coming back.
What to do about Yu?
Now that Yu Darvish is officially a Ranger (nice job by our intrepid Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan on that crazy deadline. Be sure to read his blog, Postcards from Elysian Fields and follow him on Twitter at @Sullivan_Ranger), the question is: How to deal with the Japanese right-hander on the prospect front.
It’s not an easy question to answer. In the past, our requirement was rookie status. If a player was eligible for Rookie of the Year voting, he belonged on a prospect ranking. Last year, for instance, we added Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the Twins’ top 10 after he signed, coming in at No. 7.
Darvish, of course, would rank much higher, both on his new organization’s list and on the overall Top 100 (Coming on Jan. 25 if you hadn’t heard). But here’s the thing. I’ve never been all that comfortable with including a player like Darvish on a prospect list. To me, he’s not a prospect. He’s a big leaguer and already an established star in another high-level league. Deciding on what the line is for rankings is always arbitrary, but I adhered to the (admittedly self-imposed) rookie status rule in the past.
I suppose the argument could be made that since the league Darvish is coming from isn’t at the same level as MLB (most put it at a Triple-A-ish level), he should count the same as, say, Matt Moore, also coming up from Triple-A. I just don’t see it that way and the Rangers didn’t just shell out all that cash to get anything but a finished product who will produce right away.
So, in 2012, we’ve decided to take our cue from the newly bargained CBA, as it pertains to international signings. They put particular rules in place about which international players will fall under the international player pool each team will be allotted. More advanced players like Darvish can be signed in the future without it counting against a team’s pool. Neither, by the way, would Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.
If it’s good enough for them, it’s good enough for us. So here’s the new rule as it pertains to such international acquisitions:
Not all international players will qualify for these rankings. Prospect Watch will follow the guidelines laid out by the new CBA: Players in leagues deemed to be professional (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Cuba) and are at least 23 years old and have played a certain number of years in those leagues will not be considered.
So, Mr. Darvish (and Mr. Cespedes eventually), you might qualify to be ROY, but you won’t show up on Prospect Watch.
Thoughts on the Montero deal and much, much more
Believe it or not, this is my first post of 2012. But I have a good reason, honest. First, I was traveling overseas with my family. Don’t believe me? Here’s a picture as proof (Yes, that’s the Dome of the Rock behind my Dome):
- The B3 brood in the Old City of Jerusalem (Mrs. B3 is the official family photographer)
Then it was on to the Rookie Career Development Program outside of Washington, D.C. Don’t believe me? Well, proof is in this link, our overview of the Program (with player interviews galore beneath that).
These days, I’m knee deep in prospect ranking work. Don’t believe me? (Perhaps I’m overusing the theme). Proof is the first list that was released today: The Top 10 RHP Prospects, the story as well as in Prospect Watch (with video of each player). Oh, and if you didn’t notice, there’s a brand new central location for all things prospect called Prospect Central. Check it out early and often.
In the midst of all of this, there was the news of the big Yankees-Mariners trade. It’s not official just yet, so no movement on the ol’ 2011 Postseason lists, but it’s coming. And we’re making sure all the 2012 lists are up to date (Top 100 overall coming out on Jan. 25), Top 20 per team coming in February (that’s right, folks, twice as many names!!!! So you understand why the B3 Blog had taken a back seat).
So, the trade… my first gut reaction was that the Mariners gave up too much. But then I talked to a bunch of people who’s opinions I trust in the scouting industry and I’ve come around to this perhaps being a win-win. The Yankees needed starting pitching help and they can, if they so desire, have Michael Pineda for a long time. Jose Campos is a legit prospect as well and even if he’s young and hasn’t pitched in full-season ball, I had one scout tell me he thought he’d be ready by 2014.
The key, though, is Montero (Hector Noesi will contribute, tho). The M’s have wanted him for a while, remember? So now they got their man, the middle of the order (young) bat to put with Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. But, the $64,000 question is, can he catch?
My thinking is the Yankees didn’t think so, or else they didn’t want to, in the pressure cooker of New York, find out. There was no room for Montero on that roster unless he was going to be a DH at age 22. To me, the writing was on the wall when late last year they needed a catcher, Montero was up, but they brought up Austin Romine instead. Having made the determination that Montero wasn’t going to catch for them anytime soon, they were more willing to part with his bat. This, by the way, is just a theory.
I thought that most in the scouting world agreed that Montero would never have the stuff to catch every day in the big leagues. But it turns out I was wrong. I know, shocking. But in an informal survey I did of some high-level scouts, most actually thought he’d eventually be OK behind the plate. No one was ready to etch his name on Gold Gloves, but those I talked to made comparisons to Javy Lopez (he came up several times), Jorge Posada and, of course, Mike Piazza (Yes, many think Montero’s bat could be THAT good). Here’s some of what they had to say:
“There are a bunch of ex-catchers that made their mark with their bats and figured out the catching position the more they played. Remember, this kid is 22 years old and he can really throw. That’s a good start for his continued development.”
“Yes [he'll be able to catch]! The team will need patience. He’s better than Mike Napoli was at the same stage!”
“Not now (will he be able to catch full-time), but Javier Lopez did! All catchers that stay there get better if they try!”
“If he hits enough — remember Javy Lopez?”
Told you about the Lopez comps. And scouts really like to use exclamation points in text messages. But that’s neither here nor there.
So, Mariners fans, don’t expect defensive miracles right off the bat. But stick with your soon-to-be new catcher. Sounds like most think he’ll be acceptable back there and the bat will more than make up for any deficiencies with the glove.
What they like about Yu (Darvish)
With the deadline for bids for Yu Darvish now in the past, I thought it was time to see what all the fuss is about. The headline possibilities are almost endless:
What I like about Yu (variation used above)
I only had Yu
Yu had me at hello
Anyway, you get the point.
We’ll know soon who has won the rights to negotiate with the right-hander. To get fans of teams who might be in the running ready, I spoke with a scout in Japan who has seen Darvish throw on many occasions. Here’s what he had to say:
If you ask him, he throws more than ten pitches. I’ve seen him throw four-seamers, two-seamers, cutters, splitters, forkballs, curve balls, sliders, and changeups with variation on most of the breaking stuff. What he uses depends on how he’s feeling that day. Basically, he’ll sit 93-95 mph and touch as high as 98 mph. His two seamers are 91-93 mph, his cutter is 89-91 mph. I’ve seen the curve as low as 64 and as high as 82 with pretty good arm speed. The slider can be 86-87, 82-84, 77-78 (Japanese slurve), all over the place, really. It’s his go-to pitch. Splitter 87-88, but he doesn’t throw it much. His hands are small for a guy his size, and it looks like he has trouble getting his fingers around the ball for the splitter. He’s very good with a very high ceiling. He has the right amount of cockiness to get through the new challenges that await him. I think he’s a #3 starter at worst, obviously with a chance to be an ace.
There’s a lot of information about Darvish out there, with more assuredly to come. Hopefully this adds a little something to that file.
A few parting Winter Meetings thoughts
I’m home now after another Winter Meetings in the books (for the record, this was my 11th Winter Meetings, third here in Dallas), and I figured I’d leave with a few parting thoughts, of course with a prospect slant.
- With Mr. Pujols now officially gone from St. Louis, most talk has been about moving Lance Berkman or Allen Craig to first base. I wonder if they’ll give Matt Adams a shot to play somewhere now. Probably unlikely, but that guy can hit.
- With Mr. Wilson now officially gone from Texas, is there anyone internally who’d get a crack at that rotation? Martin Perez isn’t ready, maybe a Neil Ramirez type? Of course, Texas could dive into the Yu Darvish sweepstakes (more on him after I get home). Conversely, with the Angels getting him, does that mean a guy like Garrett Richards can get more development time in the Minors?
- With the Marlins not getting Wilson or Pujols, do they have enough left in the piggy bank to go after Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes?
- Will the best players not taken in the Rule 5 Draft — Jiwan James, the intriguing story of Drew Cumberland — make people wish they had taken them with strong seasons in 2012?
- Will anyone provide the A’s with enough prospects to get Gio Gonzalez? Sounds like Oakland is selling high, so we’ll see if a team that needs a starter is willing to bite.
That’s it for now. Take a deep breath and we’ll talk more next week.
The latest Rule 5 talk
Yes, there is some. Maybe not the intrigue of where Albert and C.J. will sign, but people are talking about tomorrow’s Rule 5 Draft. Here’s some of what’s being talked about regarding the draft.
- The Houston Astros might be shopping the No. 1 overall pick. That doesn’t mean they don’t want two players, but perhaps might be able to swap the pick, collect some extra cash, and still make two selections. Jiwan James of the Phillies is getting a lot more buzz, either as a No. 1 pick or a player the Astros is very interested in. James has only been a position player for 2+ years.
- It seems more and more likely the Padres will lose Drew Cumberland. The very talented infielder hasn’t played since 2010, having retired because of an inner-ear issue. As I hear it, Padres doctors haven’t cleared him to play, but Cumberland has a doctor who has.
- The Kansas City Royals cleared a spot on the 40-man with their trade with the Pirates and they have their eye on a left-handed reliever. Don’t know which one, but Cesar Cabral of the Red Sox has been mentioned in general quite a bit.
- While most people expect the Cubs to lose Ryan Flaherty, they could also lose infielder Marwin Gonzalez, who can play second, shortstop, third and even left field. He hit .288 in 2011 and spent half the year in Triple-A.
- The Pirates might lose reliever Diego Moreno, the right-handed reliever who’s pitched very well in winter ball.
- Teams looking for lefties might take a look at the Indians’ T.J. McFarland or Josh Smoker of the Nationals. Hard-throwing southpaw Philippe Valliquette, despite not having pitched in 2011, is getting a good amount of attention, with the Blue Jays perhaps hoping he’s available when they pick.
The skinny on Nestor Molina
The Blue Jays got a dynamic late-inning reliever in Sergio Santos, but the White Sox got a pretty good pitching prospect in return. Here’s some more information on right-hander Nestor Molina.
Like the big leaguer he was traded for, Molina is also a convert to pitching. The Venezuelan originally signed as a hitter, playing the outfield and third base in the Venezuelan and Dominican Summer Leagues in 2006-2007 before turning to pitching full-time in 2008.
He made his United States debut in 2009 and spent nearly all of his first two seasons in the country as a reliever. He pitched well in that role, with a 1.67 ERA in 2009 and 3.11 in his full-season debut across two levels in 2010.
The Blue Jays moved the 22-year-old into a starting role in 2011 and he took to it well, leading the system in ERA (2.21) and finishing third in strikeouts. He walked only 16 while striking out 148. He was a Florida State League All-Star and earned a late promotion to Double-A, where he was extremely effective over five Eastern League starts. The success he had earned him a spot on Toronto’s 40-man roster in November.
Molina features an intriguing four-pitch mix with an advanced feel for pitching. He’ll throw his fastball in the 89-92 mph range and complements it with a slider and a changeup. His best pitch, though, might be his splitter, a true plus offering with a ton of deception. Some have said he might be better-suited to be a top-flight bullpen/setup guy, but his stuff and command say he’ll get more time to start.
Marlins signings: Who gets what comp picks?
As if the newly bargained agreement wasn’t confusing enough, we had to have one team sign two free agents at about the same time. And with one of those free agents a “modified Type A” in the one-year rule adjustment before Type A and Type B ratings go the way of the dinosaur, it gets even more complicated.
The Marlins have made quite the splash in signing Heath Bell (the aforementioned modified Type A) and Jose Reyes (a good, old-fashioned Type A). Because Florida picks No. 9 overall, they will not be giving up their first-round pick. And because they signed Bell first, they won’t be giving up their second-round selection either.
When Bell was modified, it was decided that a team signing him would not have to sacrifice a pick at all to get him. Instead, the Padres will get a compensation pick (sandwich A, we can still call it) after the first round is over. They will also get a second-round pick right in front of the Marlins’ second-round selection.
Here’s the kicker. Even though the Marlins did not have to give up that second-round pick to the Padres, it’s not available to the Mets as compensation for the Reyes signing. Because Bell signed first, that pick in effect is a part of that signing, even though its part is that it didn’t have to be forfeited. Instead, the Mets will get a Comp A pick and the Marlins’ selection in the third round.
Had the Marlins officially signed Reyes first, the Mets would have received that second-round pick. In other words, they get penalized a round because of the Bell signing. That might be something that doesn’t bother the Marlins, given they are in the same division as the Mets. But it’s probably likely that Bell himself will love it. He’s not exactly a fan of the Mets from his time in their system and the fact that his signing cost them a round might give him a little chuckle.
Jonathan Mayo
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